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Saturday
Sep132008

Good luck, Pakistan!

I'm a little confused here. Someone straighten me out. Russia invades Georgian territory to protect its citizens from Georgian military attacks. Bad thing.  The Evil Empire up to its tricks again. The USA makes raids across the border into Pakistan from the semi-occupied Afghan state. Necessary thing to quell terrorist unrest in the region.

Now perhaps I'm a little cynical here, but I reckon it's only a matter of time before a US soldier gets killed or captured by Pakistani or Taleban forces. This could happen within days or weeks. When this happens, the neo-con nutcases in Washington are going to be delighted and will do exactly what the Russians just did in Georgia - pile into the lawless border area and shoot anyone who gets in the way.  It's very important to the USA that they remind the new Pakistani administration just who is in charge, and it isn't the Pakistanis. In fact, it may even be a smart move to invite US forces in to clear out the border region, so that everyone can be seen to be co-operating, and the American threat of several years ago to bomb Pakistan back to the Stone Age will not be not dusted off and carried out.

So here's my prediction. An assault on US troops leaving a handful dead, probably by the Taleban, followed immediately by a wild west war in the mountains with no rules, no journalists and no cameras. By the time we hear about it, there will be hundreds of dead, and we will never find out what happened. But the Pakistani administration will end up further in the pocket of the USA, because they don't have the muscle to go up against them, despite being a nuclear power. 

One must hope that the nukes are under lock and key, because the biggest danger is that they are used by hot-headed local commanders against US ground forces. I'm afraid that would be the end of modern Pakistan as we know it.

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